I just finished a game of Wingspan with some new players. Little Penguin came up and I told them it was a very strong card as I snatched it up. I proceeded to play it and trigger it 5-6 times and received 0 fish. That seemed unlikely to me, so I curiously dove into the probabilities of little penguin... and here's what I discovered.
Select which expansions you're playing with to see the expected value for a Little Penguin activation.
Expected Value:
Given the cardpool (up to Asian expansion as the time of writing this), little penguin can win games on its own with enough luck.
Biggest possible Little Penguin: 0 (+8 for Little Penguin)